I’ve been debating posting this. It’s a somewhat dark view of the future and most of it is just our thinking out loud. But I figure if Justin is right on, I’ll want proof my husband is psychic. And if he’s wrong, all the better!
Ten months. That’s what Justin is giving it until the SHTF in Las Vegas. Ten months until construction work is obsolete, until we’re stuck in a house we can’t pay for, until we get the hell outta dodge. Ten months until the unemployment rate in Vegas jumps, until casinos make more layoffs, until said casinos aren’t making enough to pay enough in taxes to keep our economy afloat. Ten months until the beginning of a completely new atmosphere out here.
He’s basing this on a few things. 1. There are no jobs (no mid-size to big projects – only piddly stuff) starting up right now. He’s at City Center along with thousands of other construction workers. According to him, a decent sized jobsite would need to break ground within the next couple of months for there to be work for him (or thousands of others) after this current job finishes in December and so far *nothing* is even in the planning stages. 2. Too many construction sites are stopping construction due to finances nd too many casinos are going bankrupt meaning less or no remodels, less taxes and less employees. 3. The out-of-work list is already thousands deep.
His thoughts? Work diligently for the next few weeks to sell my truck. If it doesn’t sell by the next payment, let it go. Ruin our credit, but save us an embarrassing amount of money each month (fyi: this was my work vehicle when I had my business but between his truck and his motorcycle, we could do without it now). After that do all we can to make extra money and drastically cut expenses even more to save all we can between now and “then”, whenever then might end up being. He’s even tossed out the idea of letting the house go and renting a tiny apartment or house. Oof. He wants to start looking now into places to move, buying our land this year and living out of a pop-up trailer or RV if necessary. So much for five years, huh?
Now, I will admit my husband is a “black or white”, “all-or-nothing” kinda guy. He has a tendency to jump to extremes when problem solving. But never, ever has he worried about work or jumped to extremes when it came to work or such big decisions. Never has he felt the need to. In fact it’s so rare for him to be considering things like this that despite the fact we’ll probably not need to start jumping to such extremes, I’m very inclined to trust his judgement on the seriousness of the matter.
The difficult part is that we won’t know if he’s right until it’s too late – either too late to make major changes or too late to undo any changes we make (like ruining our credit for nothing). Going into extreme mode when it comes to saving and earning money is simple to do now without major ramifications. But letting the truck go? Letting the house go??? I have serious ethical problems with both those options. I mean, if we couldn’t make payments then we gotta do what’s necessary. But we made an agreement to make payments and while we can I feel we should, ya know?
Right now we’re brainstorming ways to make money or cut expenses even further. We’ve come up with plenty of ideas; maybe I’ll share them later.
What do you all think? How is the economy affecting you and your decisions right now? Anyone else contemplating major (and fast) moves like this? Are we crazy to jump to such conclusions? Or would we be crazy not to?
My boyfriends job is secure (knock on wood) but we’re doing what we can to pay off our overdrafts and personal loan asap. Without knowing you I say buy the land now while it’s probably cheaper than it has been lately. The economy is going to force people to get back to growing stuff again and being more self sufficient. It’s a strange thing for people now but what an adventure too!
my husband would say no. he’s an economist and has been talking about this collapse way before most people did. he saw it coming a year and half ago. he hasn’t looked at any particular state, but just at the US in general but he’s been painting a REALLY dark picture.
here in japan unemployment is rising as well as cost of living. japan is being hit really hard because it depends ALOT on american consumers to buy japanese imported goods. that’s basically come to a halt. certain japanese companies are really struggling and laying off thousands. that trend will continue for a while. inspite of all that though the japanese economy isn’t as bad off as the US.
so i’d say brace yourselves. i’ve posted about this a few times on my blog and it seems that most people just don’t want to think about it or discuss it. fair enough. it’s a scary scenario.
maybe i’ve said enough for now. so sorry you guys have to make these tough decisions. best to you.
Around here it is strange. You can see the signs of the economical problems around, for sure. We all know at least someone, and probably more than one someone who is out of a job or has taken a major pay cut. We all drive down the street and see businesses closed up. But, the economy is better here and there than other places. The unemployment rate in Tulsa OK, for instance, is half or less than half of what the national average is. Comparitively speaking, its not too bad around here either and speaking of building projects, those are definitely going on…Maybe instead of letting things go and living in a trailer on some piece of land somewhere you should just move to TX…or anywhere where there is work for Justin/you. Its what people do…move around for work ha ha. It would be wierd to people who have never moved, I guess. Just seems a little more levelheaded than some things and you can stil go to your piece of land one day…they way you wanted to go.
Sounds like you and Justin are willing to do whatever it takes…but I can see that being a lot of different things. I am sure you guys can too. Even if 10 months from now it isnt as disastrous as Justin is foreseeing in Vegas it would still be a good idea to go where there is more work for a while…while you can…before it is “too late.”
Oh, and, there is a lot of land out here in TX. A lot. And, now is the time to buy it.
Yep. Right there with you. Dh’s job is dependent on the casinos and right now he is down to working three days a week. Like he said, it’s still pays more than unemployment would so he can’t complain. But we wonder how long even three days a week will last? There seems to be a little bit of work trickling down the line, but nothing consistent. And so, now what? Do we continue paying our obligations or start stock piling our money while we have it? We dare not depend on our government to help us out when we will need it. There is a lot of resentment when it comes to all the bailouts being passed around. At the very least I figure that we can repair our credit if things turn around.
Thanks for posting about it.
I think Justin may be right for your area, but I don’t think it will be that dire in many areas, like here in MN where things are getting worse but there is still building going on and other positive things. I think you called it right in that you shouldn’t just leave the house until you have to–truck could be a different story though. Maybe you can sell it on Ebay or some national online site (Craig’s Lists in other parts of the country) to someone who’s doing well, not in Vegas. Take any extra money and start looking for that land and place to start over, though. Do what you can there, I’d say.
Economists I know, even fairly optimistic ones, are saying 6 months from now things will be worse. Justin is probably right on. It’s funny, though, my husband just got a great job offer today which would be wonderful for him, and he already has a great job–so we’re feeling pretty fortunate here!
All the stuff I read says your timeline is about right, maybe a little early for the nation as a whole, but for Vegas, yeah, get out. I know you don’t really want to come all the way to NY, but I’ll look for land for you anyway! There would be a market for Earthships here… And people who have experience with all the sustainable stuff you want to incorporate. The real estate market never boomed here, so there won’t be much of a bust in prices, which are already low. But I agree that not all areas of the country are in as bad a state as Vegas. Good Luck! Oh, and you are lucky to have a spouse that is totally on board, if not a little overboard! Better than head-in-the-sand!
According to Michael Melby, President of CUE Financial and his talk on historic economic cycles and the challenges of today, which was the luncheon I was at yesterday he claims never believe the majority. We are about to see the financial institutes do better and all else will follow.
Things were a lot worse in the 70′s. Unemployment was close to 15% and interest was at 21%. There have been other era’s we could compare today to, and see we are not as in dire staights as we have been in the past and we all know how they changed.
I think you are very smart not to want to ruin your credit. And I really like the ideas of selling your truck for less than you owe, refinance the balance and have Justin look for work else where. The construction will recover at a slower rate. But this way you are paying off a debt and still investing for your future. And I’m here to tell you living in a Pop up is camping and we all know you can’t do that for more than a night!
~Steph, I def agree on the importnce of debt free. We’ve managed to have no other debt besides my vehicle and our home. I can’t imagine going into this with the national debt average (something like over $10k?).
~cyndi, which part does your hubby say no to? Never even thought about how we’re affecting other countries. Strange how we can be so interconnected. I agree it’s not what people want to see or think about. I think it’s hard to accept that our current system is not realistic in the long term (how could constant, never-ending growth be realistic?).
~Kristin, I’ve considered OK and TX. I still have a lot to look into. Overwhelming to even think about!
~April, sounds like we’re on the same wave-length. Are you here in Vegas as well?
~Lisa, so glad to hear you guys are doing well! Thanks for the tip on Ebay – I hadn’t thought of it. I’ll look into how it works.
~Miranda, if you can somehow change a few laws in NY, we’d probably be right behind ya! But def still keep an eye out for land.
~Elizabeth, who is the majority? And how can I trust a person in a financial institute saying financial institutes will get better, kwim? I’m not so sure construction will recover enough to keep our abundance of workers in a job…maybe we’ll start matching the national growth though, sure. But that’s not much compared to the ratio of workers we have. I def agree that things have been worse. But I think things are going to get worse than they are right now. I don’t think we’ve seen rock bottom yet. Good point on the pop-up though. lol I’ll look for an RV.
Here there is continual layoffs and businesses closing. We hit a bad patch after 9/11 when the local aircraft plants laid off 10,000 workers and the trickle down effect of that was massive and difficult for so many. Our city did recover but now, the same plants are back into layoff mode as well as new places. Layoffs are followed by house foreclosures. Luckily, our appraisers are pretty tight on values so it’s not popped bubble like in other areas. Almost everyone who has a stick built house has gained a few % in value every year. What scares me though is driving by the malls/stores and seeing hoards of people who are shopping, shopping, shopping. We know tons of people who are just 1 or 2 paychecks away from financial ruin. Land here is being snapped up so fast and the values on it are rising. We are choosing to hunker down and ride it out. And, pay off debt just as fast as we can.
Yeah, things are looking scary. And not a bad idea to move to a more sustainable environment. We worry about many of those things here, but feel VeRY lucky that we are in an area FULL of farms, orchards, organic farmers, small farmers, we have abundant fresh water, we have four seasons, we have forest and prairie and farm and lakes and rivers. We have a vibrant local economy (please stay that way!!!). People could survive here. We are also lucky (knock LOUDLY on wood) that our economy and unemployment in our city is stable so far. Some layoffs, but housing seems OK, jobs seem OK…we read about some parts of the country and cannot imagine how people will survive as everything tanks. But I ramble.
In the big picture, do what you can to get out if you feel you need to. It is never a bad idea to reduce debt and live on less no matter what happens. I personally would worry about renting…what if your landlord tanks? But buying land, having a place to grow food…all sounds good!
Oh – and I’ve known MANY people who have lived in a camper or tent while they build a home. In New Mexico where I lived for many years a family of four lived in a small RV for two years and built their own straw bale home…by hand. All depends on what you need to survive, what you are used to, how you acclimate to that type of living, and the climate you are living in. I don’t know if I could do it, but many do!
Melissa, where do you live? You aren’t along in the shopping observation. I know many who are in debt or barely making it and can’t stop shopping. Scary.
Denise, you are in Madison, *Wisconsin* right? Justin has family all over WI and we have considered it because of the very reasons you mentioned – farms, fresh water, markets. His uncle actually has a dairy farm, and other family members farm as well. It would be good to know we’d have help setting things like that up. But the snow!!! And the cold!!! And the SNOW!!! :O
Tara, Wisconsin would be great for you guys, esp. with family there. I also want to say if you have any interest in Central MN, or even want to come look around near here, you and your family are so welcome to come stay with us for a while. We’d probably all go a bit crazy, and you’d be in the basement where we have a room we could convert, but I feel like I want to tell you there is space here for you!!! Funny how this blogging makes you feel you know people just a bit!
I have a BIL who buys vehicles on Ebay at times. He’s in Atlanta and will drive to California or wherever for the “right” car. I bet others do the same. Try it!
Lisa, you are too kind!! I know what you mean about the blogging; I’ve offered our home too. Our family would most definitely drive you guys crazy in your own space though! We’ve talked about MN too (more of his family lives there also). If I find myself in either state though we will definitely have to hook up with your family, though.
Tara!
We are totally out of here soon too! Aaron and I were out at Hoover Dam with my mom last month and couldn’t believe how low the water was. Aaron is predicting that this will be a ghost town in the future. I keep asking myself, “Why did we move here, again?”
S*
We live in Henderson but dh works in Vegas at a major sign company. I also run a small daycare from home. A few months ago I thought I would be losing families but we’re still going strong.
Hey yah. Not living in America, or even in Canada at the moment, I don’t have much to add to the list of advice/forecasts etc.
I do want to tell you that I hope that you and your partner are able to make some decisions that are best for your family and don’t rely too, too much (hard not to) on the smelly economy.
You are a brilliant woman and I adore your blog and what you stand for! Good luck with all of this, and know that there are people out here pulling for yah!
I think interesting times are coming and I think its wise to prepare. Nothing bad ever happened because we’ve cut expenses or prepared for the worst. Even if the worst never materializes.
Thanks for stopping by my blog and commenting, I’m happy to have “discovered” yours and look forward to reading more.
Sarah-Yet another reason!
April-Good to hear you guys are still hanging in there. I think there are a few sustainable jobs out there an childcare is definitely up there.
VeganCowGirl – Thank you!!
Kathie-I think you’ve hit the mark. No harm in preperation. Thanks for commenting!
Yay, WI! Need some more unschooly garden growing crunchy mama friends here!
Well how fantastic that no one who responded was in dire straight! No one is losing there home & all have jobs! But ineresting the majority said 2 prepare 4 the worst.
What should I say,”I hope you prove me wrong”? No-I feel better saying live in the moment. Live in the present with ur beer & yoga!
Hi there, just stumbled onto this site. Remember Y2K? My father prepared for 2 years, stockpiling for that. We ended up donating all the food to a church going on a mission trip. And after living through 2 years of believing it was all going to crash…I still believe in preparation. We can’t know how bad it will be, but we can only be better off if we save money, and do our best to start living closer to the land. My family is into our 2nd year of a huge organic garden. We are thinking of getting chickens. My parents have a good piece of land, that if we needed to we could go to. Right now, unfortunately, my husband and I are stuck in the city. But we have a plan, and a place to go if we need to. “Normal” preparation never hurt anyone. I say “normal”, because I will never forget the story of one man who, during the y2k scare, convinced his wife to have all their teeth pulled and to get dentures on the assumption there would be no way of getting to a dentist should something go wrong. Yikes!! I bet that man is divorced now!